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Paolo Banchero — BUY-LOW (High Conviction)

Market inefficiency: Injury return discount + short-term volatility

Usage outlook: 📈📈

Why the thesis is strong

• Post-injury ramps almost always create a 2–4 week buy window.

• With Franz Wagner sidelined, Paolo’s:

• Usage rate

• Shot attempts

• Assist chances

all trend upward immediately.

• In points leagues, inefficiency doesn’t hurt nearly as much as raw volume.

Ceiling / Floor

• Ceiling: Legit top-15 / fringe first-round per-game run while Franz is out.

• Floor: Still a top-40 points-league asset even if efficiency lags.

Verdict:

✅ Aggressive buy. If a manager is impatient due to rust games, you should exploit it now.

Coby White — ELITE BUY-LOW WINDOW

Market inefficiency: Small sample panic + injury interruption

Current valuation: Artificially crushed

Key context

• Only ~7 games played → rankings are meaningless.

• “Outside top 300” is noise, not signal.

• Chicago’s guard rotation needs White’s offense and minutes.

Trade logic check

• Deals like White + Cam Johnson for Cooper Flagg (dynasty)

→ That’s a sell-low mistake for the White side in redraft.

Points-league outlook

• Strong minutes

• High 3PT + scoring volume

• Secondary assists

Verdict:

✅ One of the best buy-lows on the board

Target him with:

• Overperforming low-upside vets

• Hot-start role players

Darius Garland — BUY-LOW (BUT FORMAT-SENSITIVE)

Market inefficiency: Injury frustration + role perception next to Mitchell

Why managers are tilted

• Inconsistency

• Minor injuries

• Perceived “2nd option” ceiling

Reality

• Cleveland still needs Garland as a primary creator.

• When healthy, he delivers:

• Points

• Assists

• FT volume

which play better in points leagues than 9-cat.

Trade examples mentioned

• Garland for JJJ or LaMelo → ❌ not realistic unless panic is extreme.

• Garland for Hart / Pritchard / Jrue / Porzingis →

👉 Yes, this is the right tier to explore.

Verdict:

✅ Buy if you can stomach volatility

⚠️ Slightly less appealing in strict category builds.

Devin Booker — CLASSIC STAR BUY-LOW

Market inefficiency: Early-season underperformance bias

Confidence level: Very high

Why the dip won’t last

• Track record is elite.

• Shot profile hasn’t degraded.

• Once Jalen Green returns, defensive pressure eases and spacing improves.

Points leagues

• Booker is one of the safest:

• High-minute

• High-usage

• High-efficiency guards in fantasy

Verdict:

✅ Smash buy if anyone doubts him.

This is exactly how you acquire top-15 talent without paying full price.

Myles Turner — CAUTIOUS BUY-LOW

Market inefficiency: Draft cost vs reality mismatch

What’s real

• Blocks volatility is frustrating.

• Scoring hasn’t popped.

• Role is stable but capped.

What’s not

• He’s not “washed.”

• He still holds value as:

• Big-man scoring

• Stretch-5 with blocks upside

Trade stance

• ❌ Do NOT overpay.

• ✅ Buy only if the manager is truly fed up.

Verdict:

🟡 Soft buy-low, not a priority target.

Additional Names (Quick Hits)

Miles Bridges

• Buy-low if character discount exists, production is real.

• Strong points-league play.

Brandon Miller

• Usage growing, efficiency volatile.

• Better hold/buy than sell.

LaMelo Ball

• Not a true buy-low unless injury fear dominates.

• When active = league-winner.

Amen Thompson

• More category appeal, still developing points-league ceiling.

• Buy in dynasty, selective in redraft.

Injury Stashes / Speculative Buy-Lows

Jarrett Allen

• Safe rebound candidate.

• Excellent stability piece in points leagues.

Jrue Holiday

• Age + missed games scare managers.

• Still valuable as a glue asset—buy cheap, don’t expect star output.

Final Asset Ranking (Buy-Low Priority – Points Leagues)

Tier 1 (Act Now)

1. Paolo Banchero

2. Devin Booker

3. Coby White

Tier 2 (Situational)

4. Darius Garland

5. Miles Bridges

Tier 3 (Only at Discount)

6. Myles Turner

7. Jrue Holiday

8. Jarrett Allen

Bottom Line

You’re thinking about this correctly:

• Injury returns + short samples = maximum mispricing.

• Stars don’t lose value overnight—managers just lose patience.

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