PRESEASON PREDICTIONS WINNERS AND LOSERS [NBA Fantasy Basketball]
DRAFT SEASON GRADE REFLECTION
INTRO
Early into the 2024-25 draft season, I handed out letter grades to every player in the first 10 rounds of fantasy drafts, sorted by Yahoo ADP. I will highlight several names and reflect on which ones I got right and wrong. Some of these I’m proud of, while others not so much.
THE FIRST ROUND
Victor Wembanyama
ADP - 2.0
Pre Season Draft Grade - A+
9cat Per Game Ranking - 3rd
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 2nd
9cat Totals Ranking - 15th
Right process, wrong results. Wembanyama is a reminder that this game is unpredictable, and even with some players more injury prone than others, you can’t predict a random blood clot diagnosis.
If he is fully healthy going into next season, I assume he gets picked anywhere from 2-4 overall in the first round.
Giannis Antetokoumpo
ADP - 6.7
Pre Season Draft Grade - A
9cat Per Game Ranking - 55th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 4th
9cat Totals Ranking - 60th
Giannis is the textbook example to never trust “rankings” at face value. His overwhelming negative impact on free throw percentage can mislead you if you only reference his traditional 9cat ranking.
The only reason I graded this pick an “A” and not an “A+” was because it’s important to recognize his flaw and have the knowledge to be able to build a team around him. He will continue to be a first round pick for years to come.
Joel Embiid
ADP - 8.1
Pre Season Draft Grade - D
9cat Per Game Ranking - 42nd
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 33rd
9cat Totals Ranking - 299th
I guess I got this wrong as I was too passive with a “D” and not grade him as an “F” like he truly was. His body seems to have completely given out on him with numerous different injuries as he never maintained health before being ruled out for the season.
Even Embiid’s per minutes numbers fell off a cliff this season as he averaged 30 MPG. I hated drafting him in the first round and even my take of a late second - early third round pick would still be a colossal failure. If you still believe in him for whatever reason, he will be incredibly discounted when we draft next.
Tyrese Haliburton
ADP - 8.4
Pre Season Draft Grade - A+
9cat Per Game Ranking - 5th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 7th
9cat Totals Ranking - 3rd
I felt like there was a clear top 7 in the first round with Haliburton being 6 or 7 in that group. I would’ve been very happy to take him at 8 or 9 like his ADP suggests.
There was some irrational panic at the beginning of the season with injury concerns as he started out slow, but that panic eventually subsided. He was partially absent during fantasy playoffs, but that’s not something you can predict or beat yourself up over as he played his most games in 3 seasons.
Anthony Edwards
ADP - 10.3
Pre Season Draft Grade - C-
9cat Per Game Ranking - 20th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 20th
9cat Totals Ranking - 6th
I think the hype that Edwards gets, both in fantasy and real life can be unwarranted at times. Taking him in the first round didn’t completely kill your team, but his overall production justified my skepticism around his ADP.
I don’t see his hype dying down anytime soon, and given his age of 23 he still has plenty of time to grow in many ways. Who knows where his pre draft valuation will land, but I am almost certain I will be fading him once again in fantasy drafts relative to public perception.
THE SECOND ROUND
James Harden
ADP - 16.8
Pre Season Draft Grade - A+
9cat Per Game Ranking - 8th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 17th
9cat Totals Ranking - 5th
I was taking Harden in the back half of the first round, which seems to have been a valid decision. PG & Westbrook leaving town, parlayed with Kawhi’s restrictions, predictably opened up a lot for Harden as he looked the most comfortable he’s looked in a long time.
Chet Holmgren
ADP - 17.3
Pre Season Draft Grade - C-
9cat Per Game Ranking - 50th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 58th
9cat Totals Ranking - 207th
Drafting Holmgren at this ADP didn’t work out for a variety of reasons. The injury was an obvious factor, and Oklahoma City’s position in the standings gave them no reason to rush him back into big minutes.
Playing alongside Isaiah Hartenstein also didn’t help. With another elite center option in the mix, Holmgren didn’t have as much importance to the team as his rookie season.
Kevin Durant
ADP - 17.4
Pre Season Draft Grade - A+
9cat Per Game Ranking - 11th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 12th
9cat Totals Ranking - 25th
This season will mark Durant’s 16th straight season of finishing inside the first round of 9cat per game rankings. I’m still not entirely sure what drove down his ADP, but I was happy to draft him in the middle of the second round.
LaMelo Ball
ADP - 23.1
Pre Season Draft Grade - A+
9cat Per Game Ranking - 59th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 32nd
9cat Totals Ranking - 139th
Another year of feeling like LaMelo has great value relative to ADP, and another year of feeling let down due to injury. Will I fall for it again next season? Probably.
Karl Anthony-Towns
ADP - 23.5
Pre Season Draft Grade - A+
9cat Per Game Ranking - 6th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 9th
9cat Totals Ranking - 4th
This one felt pretty obvious after KAT landed in New York. He was able to play 100% of his minutes at center and the rebounding & FG% spiked as a result. His minutes also rose because you know, Tom Thibodeau.
THE THIRD ROUND
Alperen Sengun
ADP - 28.1
Pre Season Draft Grade - C+
9cat Per Game Ranking - 90th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 78th
9cat Totals Ranking - 62nd
My hesitancy to draft Sengun was largely centered around the difficulty to build a fantasy team around him. It felt like he needed his highest percentile outcome to return value at an ADP of 28.1.
Houston seems to have involved him less in the offense this season, which I didn’t necessarily see coming in this disappointing fantasy season. His future in Houston seems to be a bit murky going into next season.
Tyrese Maxey
ADP - 29.1
Pre Season Draft Grade - A-
9cat Per Game Ranking - 10th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 11th
9cat Totals Ranking - 58th
It was disappointing how his season ended, but Maxey finished as a first round player per game. Injury concerns for his all star teammates felt like there would be a lot more for Maxey to do and that was exactly the case. Steal numbers also doubled which was a welcome surprise.
Lauri Markkanen
ADP - 30.3
Pre Season Draft Grade - C
9cat Per Game Ranking - 94th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 93rd
9cat Totals Ranking - 173rd
I stayed away from drafting Markkenen due to tank/rest concerns and it was even worse than expected.
I’m not really sure how his per game numbers drastically fell off as far as they did. Was he disengaged on a tanking team? Did he feel like he could relax now that he got paid? I assume it was a combination of the two and I’d imagine you now have a lifelong disdain for him if you used a third round pick on him.
Cade Cunningham
ADP - 34.6
Pre Season Draft Grade - B
9cat Per Game Ranking - 28th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 13th
9cat Totals Ranking - 29th
I was big on drafting Cade in the 2023-24 season and I made a mistake not doubling down heading into this season. The turnovers suck and bring his traditional 9cat ranking way down relative to his minus 1, but Cade undeniably took a huge step this season.
It’s hard to make calls on where players should be drafted with so much water to go under the bridge but I think it’s pretty likely that he’s a first round pick next season.
Paolo Banchero
ADP - 34.6
Pre Season Draft Grade - F
9cat Per Game Ranking - 133rd
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 109th
9cat Totals Ranking - 209th
Banchero undeniably took another huge leap this season, specifically in the second half. His game still has major deficiencies in the percentage categories & turnovers and doesn’t exactly make up for it on the defensive end. It’s not impossible to build a fantasy team around him, but when you’re basically punting at least 2 categories, and ideally 3 or 4 it makes it really tough.
Something really strange happened this season though, as he shot 78% on free throws in the final 2 months, up from 72% the season prior. His FG% also raised from 45% to 47% during this period. He basically played up to ADP across the board in the final 2 months.
I wouldn’t say I’m ready to trust this, and I still wouldn’t be interested in investing a third round pick on him, but it’s worth monitoring through next season.
Ja Morant
ADP - 35.0
Pre Season Draft Grade - C
9cat Per Game Ranking - 89th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 74th
9cat Totals Ranking - 149th
Morant continues to be overvalued in 9cat leagues, and that’s before you factor in the continuous missed time for various injuries. His 9cat game has many flaws, and I will continue to fade him anywhere near this valuation.
THE FOURTH ROUND
Fred VanVleet
ADP - 38.5
Pre Season Draft Grade - A+
9cat Per Game Ranking - 73rd
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 57th
9cat Totals Ranking - 84th
This is VanVleet’s first time finishing outside the top 25 in six seasons and he fell well outside that mark. Seems like the aging curve might be starting to hit him. I’ve always had several shares of VanVleet, and this season was no exception in the first year that he’s disappointed me.
On a team full of young talent with another lottery pick on the way, it’s hard to envision a huge bounce back on the way for Fred VanVleet. He always seems undervalued though, so I will still be keeping a close eye.
Kawhi Leonard
ADP - 45.2
Pre Season Draft Grade - B-
9cat Per Game Ranking - 27th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 32nd
9cat Totals Ranking - 158th
This one was a hard one to call. We knew the injury would limit him, and it’s hard to invest this kind of draft capital on someone with such unknown availability. Regardless, this was basically best case scenario for Kawhi and the gamble paid off as he was there when you needed him most.
Top 10 in the final 2 months of the season and top 3 in the final month, averaging 35 MPG through both timeframes. I assume he will have similar ADP next season, if not better and I will likely be looking to fade him given his injury history.
Zion Williamson
ADP - 47.0
Pre Season Draft Grade - B-
9cat Per Game Ranking - 102nd
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 41st
9cat Totals Ranking - 272nd
Only played in 30 games this year on limited minutes, but he exceeded expectations of per game numbers. There’s a big discrepancy between ranking numbers due to Zion’s negative free throw impact, which is fine if you’re punting FT%.
It was really hard to justify his ADP with all the missed games in the past, and it happened again this season playing in just over a third of the games.
He had the best per minute numbers of his entire career this season, which will likely cause him to be a polarizing player in draft discussions once again.
THE FIFTH ROUND
Jalen Duren
ADP - 53.9
Pre Season Draft Grade - C-
9cat Per Game Ranking - 78th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 73rd
9cat Totals Ranking - 47th
There was a large group of centers around this draft range and Duren was probably my least favorite. Taking him at the beginning of the fifth round would require a big leap. It’s still fair to say he improved a lot this season and outperformed my personal expectations.
Immanuel Quickley
ADP - 54.4
Pre Season Draft Grade - A-
9cat Per Game Ranking - 106th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 105th
9cat Totals Ranking - 262nd
Quickley got injured the first game of the season and he just couldn’t stay on the court in a disappointing season. He had great production when first arriving in Toronto last season and I expected more of the same in a young guard who’s still improving.
Who knows what his ADP will be going into draft season. Given his lack of name value and frustration around how this season went, it’s likely I’ll be targeting him once again.
Nikola Vucevic
ADP - 55.2
Pre Season Draft Grade - C+
9cat Per Game Ranking - 16th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 27th
9cat Totals Ranking - 12th
Vucevic turned out to be one of the biggest steals of the draft, and I don’t know anyone that saw this coming. The 34 year old center had the best shooting season of his entire career which was basically the only real difference between this year and last year. He really cooled off in the second half of the season and it’s likely I’ll be passing once again if he’s available in the 5th round.
Deandre Ayton
ADP - 60.6
Pre Season Draft Grade - A
9cat Per Game Ranking - 83rd
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 80th
9cat Totals Ranking - 196th
Ayton was putting up massive numbers towards the end of the 2023-24 season, and I expected the momentum to continue. He had several big games, but didn’t quite live up to ADP expectations.
Even if we ignore the injuries, it wasn’t all that impressive for Ayton, and was even benched for the rookie Donovan Clingan in multiple games this season. With Clingan in the mix now, Ayton’s future fantasy prospects are uncertain.
Darius Garland
ADP - 62.9
Pre Season Draft Grade - A-
9cat Per Game Ranking - 45th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 46th
9cat Totals Ranking - 31st
This felt like a fairly easy one. Garland had a down year in 2023-24 after a midseason jaw injury caused him to drop several pounds and was never able to properly settle in. Given that context, I was willing to bet on Garland who came through with arguably the best fantasy season of his career.
THE SIXTH ROUND
Nicolas Claxton
ADP - 63.3
Pre Season Draft Grade - B+
9cat Per Game Ranking - 132nd
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 109th
9cat Totals Ranking - 98th
Claxton has always been an interesting tool as a fantasy asset with his unique skillset providing increased value for certain punt builds.
Unfortunately, there were several moments this season where Claxton played like he just didn’t care, and with most of his value coming from blocks, you need a certain level of effort and care to be successful in that category.
Brandon Miller
ADP - 63.4
Pre Season Draft Grade - D+
9cat Per Game Ranking - 76th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 59th
9cat Totals Ranking - 273rd
Justifying this ADP required Miller to improve in multiple categories across the board, and much to my surprise he did just that. In per game value, he basically lived up to ADP expectations.
The early season injury was a very disappointing way to end his blazing hot start, and I’m intrigued to see what version of Brandon Miller we see when he returns.
Josh Giddey
ADP - 67.1
Pre Season Draft Grade - B-
9cat Per Game Ranking - 58th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 63rd
9cat Totals Ranking - 52nd
Maybe I got this one wrong, maybe I didn’t. We’re all going to remember the insane run to end the season, which includes a top 5 finish in the final 2 months. Many will forget that he was teetering on the edge of being droppable in standard leagues early in the season.
Giddey was a huge beneficiary of the midseason LaVine trade, which allowed him to take full control of the Bulls offense. This was somewhat factored in pre draft with a possibility of a deadline blow up, but still incredibly unpredictable, especially to the level that he rose to.
He definitely won leagues for many people, and if that was you he will have special place in your heart. Though it’s almost inevitable that he will be overvalued in drafts next season.
Tobias Harris
ADP - 67.9
Pre Season Draft Grade - A
9cat Per Game Ranking - 80th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 97th
9cat Totals Ranking - 57th
I wasn’t the only person big on Harris going into the draft. I expected higher usage, as one of the centerpieces of this Detroit team, but many other players stepped up on this surprising team. He played exactly up to ADP, and I was satisfied for the most part.
THE SEVENTH ROUND
Brook Lopez
ADP - 75.2
Pre Season Draft Grade - F
9cat Per Game Ranking - 56th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 62nd
9cat Totals Ranking - 19th
I’ve gotten this one horribly wrong for 3 straight seasons. The late career resurgence for Lopez has been extremely under appreciated. For a guy with an extensive injury history including multiple season ending injuries and chronic back problems, nobody thought his career would’ve lasted this long, especially while playing at such a high level.
With the way the center position has changed the last decade, in addition to injuries and age, Lopez has completely remodeled the way he plays the game, and is thriving. He’s added a consistent 3 point shot while maintaining high efficiency. In the past three seasons combined, he’s also blocked more shots than any previous 3 season stretch. The most surprising part of all is that he’s only missed 9 games total over the past 3 seasons.
The age is impossible to ignore, but maybe I should just stop doubting this man. If the ADP hypothetical remains the same, the law of averages tells me to continue to be hesitant about drafting him that high. Based on my previous success rate, it’s probably best to just ignore any advice I give on Brook Lopez during draft season.
Jrue Holiday
ADP - 77.3
Pre Season Draft Grade - C+
9cat Per Game Ranking - 107th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 116th
9cat Totals Ranking - 103rd
Holiday has been on a slow downtrend for the last 5 seasons. Most of this is due to age, but also partially due to less responsibility in Boston vs Milwaukee, as evidenced by a large usage fall off over this time. The defensive stats which used to be his biggest selling point are slipping away. This season will mark his seventh straight season of playing less than 70 games, and he might not do so ever again.
Jabari Smith
ADP - 81.0
Pre Season Draft Grade - D
9cat Per Game Ranking - 148th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 144th
9cat Totals Ranking - 176th
Jabari Smith hadn’t done anything to prove to me that this ADP made sense aside from counting on upside from a young player. With a fusion of youth breathing down his neck, it felt like there there was more downside potential than anything which we saw come to life. I’m skeptical about future development for the former third overall pick, and what his role in the league will be.
OG Anunoby
ADP - 84.0
Pre Season Draft Grade - A
9cat Per Game Ranking - 37th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 49th
9cat Totals Ranking - 21st
I was pretty high on all of the Knicks starters, feeling confident about high minutes with no depth and a crazy coach. I did not expect Anunoby to push nearly this high, which includes a top 10 finish over the last month. He’s always been a great defender, but his offense took a huge step this season. Best of all was that he was the healthiest he’s ever been.
Jonas Valanciunas
ADP - 86.1
Pre Season Draft Grade - A-
9cat Per Game Ranking - 156th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 149th
9cat Totals Ranking - 81st
Preseason reports suggested that Valanciunas would play alongside Sarr, but that never really came to fruition in the way we thought it would. Even in the games Sarr missed, his minutes never really ramped up at all for whatever reason.
Valanciunas was relegated to a pure backup after the trade to Sacramento. He’s always been a great per minute producer and we did finally get a glimpse of that during a short stretch when Sabonis was sidelined, long after he had been dropped in any sane league.
THE EIGHTH ROUND
Coby White
ADP - 86.7
Pre Season Draft Grade - C-
9cat Per Game Ranking - 71st
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 80th
9cat Totals Ranking - 50th
Drafting at this ADP felt like the ceiling for a Coby White, but there was a larger improvement than previously forecasted. A large portion of this boost came from the midseason Zach LaVine trade. Regardless, it’s been fun to watch his development over the past few seasons.
Austin Reeves
ADP - 87.0
Pre Season Draft Grade - C+
9cat Per Game Ranking - 39th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 52nd
9cat Totals Ranking - 30th
Part of me is still confused how he was able to push this high. Even after the Luka trade, I was under the impression his value would decrease, but the opposite happened. He continues to take massive leaps year to year. How often have we been able to say that a 20 PPG scorer on the Lakers is underrated?
Jordan Poole
ADP - 87.6
Pre Season Draft Grade - A
9cat Per Game Ranking - 72nd
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 74th
9cat Totals Ranking - 64th
Last season Jordan Poole had a round 4-5 ADP after the initial trade to Washington, which I faded and he was a bigger disappointment than anyone imagined. This season felt like the market overcorrected which was definitely the case.
I don’t think these ranking represent how valuable he could’ve been with his minutes kept in the low-mid twenties for nearly the last 2 months of the season due to tanking purposes.
I have mixed feelings about this pick due to his lack of availability in fantasy playoffs. I still think it’s more misleading than not avoid players as you try to predict which teams will tank late season, so I’ll count it as a win.
Bogdan Bogdanovic
ADP - 90.6
Pre Season Draft Grade - A
9cat Per Game Ranking - 223rd
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 235th
9cat Totals Ranking - 236th
I was strongly in favor of drafting Bogdanovic at this ADP considering he easily cleared it the year prior and Dejounte Murray was no longer around.
Bogdanovic only played one game before missing a month and returned to a team with a completely changed dynamic from the year prior, with his minutes never getting into the 30s.
He had some streamable moments after the trade to Los Angeles, but it’s safe to say he won’t be in any draft discussions this upcoming fall.
Jonathan Kuminga
ADP - 91.9
Pre Season Draft Grade - C-
9cat Per Game Ranking - 311th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 282nd
9cat Totals Ranking - 299th
Kuminga hasn’t done anything in his career to suggest he should be drafted inside the top 100. This ADP might have been inflated due to his increased value in points leagues, but even in that format the ADP didn’t work out. I think he’ll be closer to late round flier territory next season.
Trey Murphy
ADP - 96.4
Pre Season Draft Grade - A-
9cat Per Game Ranking - 27th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 38th
9cat Totals Ranking - 72nd
This marks the third straight season inside the top 75 for Murphy, who remains underrated in both fantasy and real life. After starting and ending this season injured, it’s possible we’ll get a discount on him again entering drafts next season. If you want to tell me he’s the Pelicans best player, I will not argue with you.
Naz Reid
ADP - 96.7
Pre Season Draft Grade - D+
9cat Per Game Ranking - 95th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 104th
9cat Totals Ranking - 53rd
I’ve always felt lower on Reid than most, who pretty much returned value where you expected him to if you drafted at this ADP.
I still fell good about my grade for two reasons. I don’t feel like there’s enough upside in his current role with two big man ahead of him who demand big minutes. Also, his fantasy game isn’t unique in any sort of interesting way that makes him special in any sort of punt builds. You pretty much know what you’re going to get out of Reid, but when you’re later into the draft I’d much prefer taking the chance on a player with bigger upside.
Mark Williams
ADP - 97.0
Pre Season Draft Grade - A
9cat Per Game Ranking - 40th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 28th
9cat Totals Ranking - 121st
I thought I was going to get burned on this take when he was out for over a month to start the season, but it ended up working out well in the end.
We all know his questionable health status which was put into the spotlight again after the midseason trade reversal due to a failed physical. Even his fantasy game was a bit of an unknown with such a small sample size to reference. It’s safe to say he surpassed all expectations with his production this season.
Williams rested every back to back this season, with sporadic rests along the way, including a 4 game absence for injury management. Unfortunately, it feels like his health will be at the forefront of discussions surrounding him for the rest of his career. This season proved that he is a fantasy beast whenever he gets the chance, and due to all the factors listed above, he will be a polarizing player to discuss in fantasy circles for years to come.
THE NINTH ROUND
Walker Kessler
ADP - 97.4
Pre Season Draft Grade - A
9cat Per Game Ranking - 46th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 25th
9cat Totals Ranking - 68th
Kessler felt due for a minute increase and that was exactly his case after taking full control of the starting job. We knew he had a great fantasy game and had the chance to showcase it as he jumped from 23.3 MPG in the 2023-24 season, to 30 MPG this season.
The random rests for tanking was a let down, but something like that is impossible to predict and definitely one of the most egregious examples of tanking we’ve seen.
Clint Capela
ADP - 99.6
Pre Season Draft Grade - D
9cat Per Game Ranking - 182nd
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 166th
9cat Totals Ranking - 197th
Even if Onyeka Okongwu didn’t exist, this ADP felt average at best. This seemed like the year that Okongwu would finally take over, and that’s what happened midseason, leaving fans questioning why it hadn’t happened significantly earlier.
Capela missed the final month of the year with his status a bit unclear. One thing for certain is that he will be on a new team next season. I find it hard to believe any team will give him a starting job.
Alex Caruso
ADP - 102.3
Pre Season Draft Grade - D-
9cat Per Game Ranking - 115th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 104th
9cat Totals Ranking - 153rd
One of my proudest takes on the board. I did not think Caruso was a draftable player, and he was droppable from day one.
Caruso had a career year in 2023-24 in Chicago which was enabled by dangerously high minutes as the heart and soul of a Bulls team where he was their most valuable player. Moving to Oklahoma City, he was much lower on the totem pole on a team that was so talented they had no excuse to play him big minutes and risk injury given his history.
At the time I am writing this, the playoffs have not started yet and I am curious if we see increased minutes for Caruso this postseason which would prove my preservation theory to be correct.
Terry Rozier
ADP - 104.3
Pre Season Draft Grade - B
9cat Per Game Ranking - 286th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 319th
9cat Totals Ranking - 246th
What on Earth happened to this guy? Are the allegations of fixing games tied to the gambling investigation on him somehow true? I thought he was a respectable pick at this ADP after a strong enough run upon landing in Miami last season, but he looked as washed as washed gets. He played so bad that he was completely out of the rotation the last few weeks of the season.
I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and say maybe the gambling investigation and/or Jimmy Butler trade saga got to his head. He’s been so good in the past, granted on terrible Hornets teams, that it’s hard to write him off completely. I will not rule out a late round flier pick next draft season.
Klay Thompson
ADP - 104.8
Pre Season Draft Grade - C-
9cat Per Game Ranking - 141st
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 153rd
9cat Totals Ranking - 101st
Klay has never looked the same after the lower body injuries, and continues to look worse every season since. Even later in the season when the Mavericks were struggling to find enough healthy players to play, Klay was unable to scale his game up at all. His best category is still threes, which remains one of the easiest category to find off waivers. He was droppable just a couple weeks into the season, and I don’t see how Klay Thompson is a draftable player again.
RJ Barrett
ADP - 105.8
Pre Season Draft Grade - D
9cat Per Game Ranking - 226th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 146th
9cat Totals Ranking - 228th
Barrett has never been a great player for category leagues, and that was proven once again this season. He has some value on certain unique punt builds, but isn’t rosterable for most teams.
He looked much better toward the end of last season, and carried it into the beginning of this season, but his flaws remain. Barrett missed several games through injuries, illness, and tanking, so it’s hard to gauge exactly where his value is at. I’d imagine I’m still fairly uninterested going into drafts next season.
THE TENTH ROUND
John Collins
ADP - 105.9
Pre Season Draft Grade - D
9cat Per Game Ranking - 44th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 56th
9cat Totals Ranking - 159th
Collins way over performed expectations on a per game basis, but the grade still feels somewhat justified. It’s generally a fool’s errand to draft based on tanking and shutdowns, but the Jazz were the one exception this season. Collins was essentially shutdown in late February with only 2 games played in March & April. The per game value was so good that this puts him in an interesting spot next draft, especially with so many other talented big men emerging in Utah.
Jerami Grant
ADP - 108.1
Pre Season Draft Grade - C
9cat Per Game Ranking - 136th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 114th
9cat Totals Ranking - 201st
Grant was basically undraftable in my eyes given his track record of skipping games, and he followed the script again this season. This was the third year in a row that he didn’t play a single game in April. Grant has only played 55+ games once in the past 5 seasons.
This was also his worst season per game since his early days in Oklahoma City, as he looked completely checked out whenever he did make an appearance. Even if he was available for a normal amount of games, the pick still looks fairly underwhelming given the amount of upside swings you can take in the tenth round.
I would assume this nonsense has to end eventually as Portland gets competitive, but I will continue to fade Grant given this reputation. It’s hard to know what’s really happening as I do believe some of his injuries are real to a certain extent, but that’s just another reason not to trust him in fantasy.
Zach Edey
ADP - 108.6
Pre Season Draft Grade - D
9cat Per Game Ranking - 135th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 137th
9cat Totals Ranking - 111th
There were too many variables involved with Edey to justify this ADP. To his credit, finishing 135th per game on only 21.6 MPG is quite impressive.
He was basically droppable after the first game. There were some flashes throughout the season that mostly came against bad teams and/or bad opposing centers.
The end of the season was super interesting after Taylor Jenkins was fired. Edey moved into a consistent ~30 MPG starting roll and flashed some eye popping lines. It’s undeniable that he can put up great fantasy lines when given the minutes, but his limitations as a real life player make me hesitant to trust this role on a nightly basis.
Who knows who will coach the Grizzlies next season and how they will use Edey. This is the type of situation where I want to see what players are brought in around him to threaten his minutes, as well as follow the training camp reports before making a call on where he should be drafted.
Josh Hart
ADP - 115.2
Pre Season Draft Grade - A-
9cat Per Game Ranking - 26th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 34th
9cat Totals Ranking - 12th
My highest grade of the tenth round, and I’m very proud about the way I hyped up Josh Hart coming into the season.
Hart had an incredible run towards the end of last season that was enabled by many injuries, so his ADP was somewhat understandably down. I was still confident in the trust that Thibodeau had in Hart and knew the minutes would remain high given the way he typically runs his rotations.
The trade for Karl Anthony-Towns opened up even more for Hart. I really cannot think of a team in recent memory that had less depth going into the start of the season than this Knicks squad. The result for Hart was still way above expectations for someone that was incredibly high on him and he’s at a huge risk of being over drafted next season.
Brandin Podziemski
ADP - 116.6
Pre Season Draft Grade - B+
9cat Per Game Ranking - 127th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 145th
9cat Totals Ranking - 119th
Podziemski has an intriguing fantasy game that I was interested in using a late round pick on during draft season. That pick didn’t quite work out the way I expected as he was droppable very early into the season with a mitigated role in the Warriors rotation.
The Jimmy Butler trade gave him a huge midseason boost as he entered the starting lineup and basically became a must roster player from early February onward. The final 2 months of the season he finished well into the top 100 of 9cat rankings.
Podziemski finished super strong and I would salivate at the chance to take him at this ADP going into next season, although he’ll likely be pushed up much further. He improved quite a lot in the second half of the season and his unique skillset for a guard makes him a great fit on several different team builds.
Onyeka Okongwu
ADP - 117.6
Pre Season Draft Grade - B+
9cat Per Game Ranking - 55th
9cat Minus 1 Ranking - 63rd
9cat Totals Ranking - 35th
This was the third season of drafting Okongwu with the hope that he would eventually take over the starting job from Clint Capela, and this was the year that it finally happened.
It wasn’t until midseason that the role change occurred, and he was understandably dropped in most leagues before the switch. We all knew what would’ve happened if he played a consistent 30+ MPG, but his ADP was rightfully driven down as fantasy managers grew impatient waiting for Okongwu to jump into the starting lineup. Okongwu will be comfortably be drafted inside the top 50 next season.
CLOSING THOUGHTS
Upon reflection of this list, it’s possible I was a bit too passive of handing out my grades. If a “C” is considered average, I failed to follow that standard and my grades were more reflective of a “B” average. I’m excited to replicate this format again next season.
I would much rather have strong and confident takes and get stuff wrong, than be passive with my thoughts and leave my fantasy audience confused with what direction to follow. With another year of analysis under my belt, my experience and confidence is growing and you can expect much more draft content as we approach next season.
Ben - Fantasy Ball 365
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Robbin Marx
NBA Fantasy Analyst
Experience: NBC Sports - Rotoworld, HashTag Basketball, Bleav Network
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