Fantasy Basketball Injury Minefield: Only Kyrie Is Worth the Gamble in 2025 Drafts
Why Tatum, Haliburton, and Lillard Are Off Redraft Boards, Who Steps Up on Each Team, and How Dynasty Managers Can Cash In
The 2025 fantasy basketball preseason is a minefield. Four superstars—Jayson Tatum, Tyrese Haliburton, Damian Lillard, and Kyrie Irving—are all facing major injuries, but only one is worth a stash in standard redraft leagues. Here’s how to play it smart, who benefits on each roster, and why dynasty managers should be circling for bargains.
The Injury Rundown: Timelines and Realistic Expectations
Jayson Tatum (Achilles Rupture)
Tatum underwent surgery in May for a ruptured Achilles. Boston’s front office has not set a timetable, but the consensus from team officials and medical experts is that he is expected to miss most, if not all, of the 2025-26 season. Even the most optimistic outlook suggests a late-season return at best, but Achilles ruptures often take a full year. Boston is not going to rush their franchise player back, especially after a major roster shakeup.
Redraft Recommendation: Do not draft Tatum in standard leagues. The risk is sky high, and the reward is almost nonexistent.
Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles Tear)
Haliburton tore his right Achilles in the Finals and underwent surgery immediately. The Pacers have indicated that this injury could cost him the entire season. Most Achilles rehabs for NBA guards last at least ten to twelve months, and there is no incentive for Indiana to push him back early.
Redraft Recommendation: Avoid Haliburton. There is almost no chance he returns in time to help.
Damian Lillard (Achilles Tear)
Lillard had surgery in April for a torn left Achilles. The Bucks have not set a timeline, but most medical sources agree he is likely to miss the entire 2025-26 season. At 35, even a late-season return would come with heavy restrictions and risk.
Redraft Recommendation: Pass on Lillard in standard drafts. The odds of a meaningful return are slim.
Kyrie Irving (ACL Tear)
Irving tore his ACL in March. The average NBA return from ACL surgery is about a year, but ACL rehabs are more predictable than Achilles. If Dallas is in the playoff hunt, Kyrie is the most likely of this group to play meaningful games in March and April. There is risk, but he is the only one with a real chance to help in fantasy playoffs.
Redraft Recommendation: Kyrie is the only one worth a stash, and only in round 11 or later. He is a pure upside swing for fantasy playoffs, not a core piece.
Who Steps Up? Fantasy Risers on Each Team
Boston Celtics: Jaylen Brown and Payton Pritchard Step Up
With Jayson Tatum sidelined for most (if not all) of the 2025-26 season and Kristaps Porzingis gone, the Celtics are entering reset mode. The departures of Porzingis and Jrue Holiday leave a massive usage vacuum and open the door for new fantasy heroes in Boston’s lineup.
Jaylen Brown is now the clear alpha in Boston. The Celtics have shot down trade rumors, making it clear he’s the franchise centerpiece. Brown’s already massive contract and Finals MVP pedigree mean he’ll be the first option every night. Expect him to take on a career-high usage rate, with more shots, more playmaking, and more opportunities to stuff the stat sheet. He’s a lock for early-round fantasy value and could flirt with top-20 numbers all season.
Payton Pritchard is the other name to circle. After a breakout year that earned him Sixth Man of the Year, Pritchard is considered untouchable in trade talks. He’s on one of the league’s best contracts and is coming off career highs in points, assists, and minutes, plus over 40 percent from three. With the Celtics’ backcourt in flux, Pritchard is a strong candidate to move into the starting lineup or play heavy minutes as a lead guard. He’s shown he can rebound, defend, and run the offense when called upon, including a nine-rebound, multi-steal game against Dallas last season. If you’re looking for a late-round guard with upside, Pritchard is a prime target.
Boston may also lean on younger players and recent draft picks to fill out the rotation, but for fantasy purposes, Brown and Pritchard are the biggest winners in Tatum’s absence. Brown is a safe early pick, while Pritchard is a high-upside sleeper who could deliver big value if he locks down a starting role.
Indiana Pacers: Andrew Nembhard and Pascal Siakam
With Haliburton out, Andrew Nembhard stands to get the biggest bump in fantasy value. In games without Haliburton last season, Nembhard averaged solid assists and minutes. He should be a mid-to-late round target for assists and steady playing time.
Pascal Siakam will take on more playmaking duties and could see his assists and overall usage rise. He is a safe top-50 pick with upside, especially if he becomes the focal point of the offense.
Milwaukee Bucks: Backcourt Committee
With Lillard out, expect the Bucks’ other guards and wings to see more ball-handling and scoring opportunities. The team may run more offense through their forwards and bigs, so watch for preseason rotation news. Whoever wins the starting point guard job will have deep-league appeal, but there is no clear fantasy star emerging in Lillard’s absence.
Dallas Mavericks: Cooper Flagg and the Backcourt
With Irving sidelined, Cooper Flagg’s all-around game is prime for fantasy, but his upside as a rookie will be much higher in points leagues. Flagg will be asked to handle elevated usage, so expect some growing pains but also plenty of opportunity.
Look for increased value from whoever starts at point guard. If Dallas leans on a committee, keep an eye on preseason depth charts for a potential late-round add.
Why Only Kyrie? The Logic Behind the Late-Round Stash
Drafting injured stars is always a gamble, but this year the odds are stacked against you for all but one. Here’s why Kyrie is the only late-round stash worth considering:
ACL injuries are more predictable and have a higher rate of full recovery than Achilles tears.
Kyrie’s injury occurred earlier in the year, giving him a realistic shot at returning for the fantasy playoffs.
Dallas is a playoff contender. If they are in the hunt, Irving will push to return.
When healthy, Kyrie is a fantasy difference-maker. Even 20 games of elite production can swing a playoff matchup.
By taking Kyrie in round 11 or later, you are not sacrificing core production. If he does not return, you can cut him without regret.
For Tatum, Haliburton, and Lillard, the odds of a meaningful return are so low that burning a draft pick, even in the late rounds, is a losing bet. Save those spots for healthy upside swings or breakout candidates.
Dynasty Leagues: Why You Should Buy Low
This is where the real opportunity lies. Injured stars are classic dynasty buy-low targets. Here’s why you should be aggressive:
Managers in win-now mode will sell these stars for healthy production. You can get a future first-rounder for a mid-tier starter or prospect.
All four have proven top-20 fantasy ceilings. Even after major injuries, modern medicine has shown stars can return to near-elite form.
If your league has multiple IR spots, stash as many as you can. You are not burning a bench spot and can build for next season.
The longer these players sit, the cheaper they get. Be aggressive with offers as the season drags on and managers get desperate for healthy bodies.
If you are rebuilding or have a deep roster, this is the time to stockpile. Even if only one or two return to form, you are getting elite production at a huge discount.
The Bottom Line
This year, the only injured superstar you should consider in standard redraft leagues is Kyrie Irving, and only as a late-round lottery ticket. Tatum, Haliburton, and Lillard are best left for the waiver wire or dynasty buy-low deals. Focus on healthy production early, stash Kyrie if you want to swing for the fences, and watch for the new fantasy risers on each affected team.
If you play it smart, you will keep your team out of the hot dog water and in the playoff hunt. If you get greedy, you will be chasing your league all year. Dynasty managers, now is your window to buy low and build a juggernaut for the future.
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Robbin Marx
NBA Fantasy Analyst
Experience: NBC Sports - Rotoworld, HashTag Basketball, Bleav Network