Don’t Panic in Week One: Chill Before You Wreck Your Roster
Alright y’all, let’s keep it all the way real. Every single season, week one hits and managers in fantasy basketball start losing their minds. Somebody shoots 3-for-18, another guy goes nuclear for one game, and boom, the league chat looks like a stock market crash. Folks are ready to drop their stars quicker than a hot plate. Listen to me…don’t do it. This is the worst time of the year to overreact. Fantasy titles are not won in October.
It’s early. Coaches are experimenting, lineups are messy, conditioning is low, and shooting percentages look like hot dog water with the bratwurst residue. You have to let the season breathe before you go tearing your team apart. Let’s talk about some of the names, stats, and performances making noise in this first week, and how not to lose your mind over them.
The Stars Are Fine, I Promise
Every year we see it. Joel Embiid throws up a dud and the panic button lights up. It’s just one bad night, family. He had four points on 1-of-11 shooting with 20 minutes of play. Sure, that’s ugly, but this man didn’t forget how to hoop overnight. He’s coming back from limited preseason action, and his knees ain’t fresh out the box anymore. He’s pacing himself.
Same story with Cooper Flagg. The hype was sky high, and his debut looked undercooked. Ten points on 31 percent shooting, zero assists, and people already calling him a bust. Where they do that at? The man just had his first NBA action, finding his groove with Luka and Kyrie. You can’t fold after one off night. Rookies need time to find rhythm.
Meanwhile, we got Victor Wembanyama leveling up in real time with a 40-point, 15-rebound, 3-block game. Anthony Edwards dropping 49 like it’s a casual Tuesday. Those are your anchors. You drafted them for this reason. Celebrate, don’t trade them. And if your studs had bad games, take a walk around the block, breathe, and remember it’s a long season.
The Early Breakouts Are Fun But Don’t Build Statues Yet
VJ Edgecombe came out swinging like he was playing for a max contract with 34 points in 42 minutes and 26 shot attempts. That’s elite volume, but that usage level is not sustainable once his teammates are healthy. Ride the wave if you picked him up, but don’t crown him yet.
Walker Kessler? He’s out here reminding folks why big men stay winning fantasy leagues. Twenty-two points, nine boards, four assists, two steals, four blocks…yes, please. But let’s not act brand new. That came in a matchup built for him. You love to see it, but keep perspective.
Jalen Johnson went off for 22-7-8 with a steal and a block. He looks strong and earned every one of those 30 minutes. That’s different. That smells real. When you see new roles backed by big minutes, that’s value to trust. When it’s a one-night fireworks show, don’t move your entire bench to chase it.
Chill on the Minute Freakouts
Every October, people lose their minds over rotations. Coaches are still experimenting. They want to see different looks. It’s temporary.
Take Charlotte for example. Ryan Kalkbrenner got the nod, played 27 minutes, double-doubled with two blocks, and now managers are rushing to grab him off waivers. It’s a nice performance, but Coach Charles Lee already said rotations will be fluid. That means nothing is locked in yet.
Utah’s the same way. Kyle Filipowski started over Taylor Hendricks, but Hendricks actually had the better line. Some managers immediately dropped Hendricks. Don’t do that. It’s week one. These coaches are cooking recipes and haven’t figured out the seasoning yet.
Big shout-out to guys like Aaron Nesmith and Herb Jones—they’re showing early value because of injuries and opportunity. Nesmith is thriving while TJ McConnell heals up, and Herb Jones will get major minutes whenever Zion’s body takes its scheduled vacation. Grab them if you can, but again, no need to panic-draft or drop proven players. Be smart.
Bad Teams Can Cook Up Fantasy Gold
The worst NBA teams can turn into fantasy buffets. Look at Washington and Utah. Both are full of young guys getting all the minutes they can handle. Keshon George dropped 21 points, 9 boards, and 2 blocks in 33 minutes. Bryce Sensabaugh went for 20 in 23 minutes. Keonte George, another solid line with 16-9-2 and two steals. That’s the kind of workload that creates value from nowhere.
But keep this in perspective. Rotation chaos favors the brave early, but not the stubborn. Grab these upside plays, see who sticks, and be ready to pivot once the league adjusts.
Alex Sarr, for instance, had a rough night with 10 points and 12 boards. Not great efficiency, but he’s just adjusting to the pace and physicality. Don’t lose patience.
Cold Shooting Happens Every Season
Missed shots are driving fantasy managers crazy right now. Paolo Banchero gets 24 points and 11 rebounds but shoots like he’s blindfolded, and suddenly people are questioning his role. Cade Cunningham and Scottie Barnes put up great peripheral stats but shot bricks, and the group chat explodes. Calm down.
Bad shooting nights are normal in the early season when players are getting back into rhythm. You didn’t draft these guys for one bad week. Give them time to warm up and watch those percentages climb back to average.
Injuries and Opportunity
Tyler Herro’s injury opened the door for Davon Mitchell in Miami. He logged 35 minutes with 12 assists. That’s production! You grab him if you need assists now, but you don’t fool yourself into thinking it’ll last all season. Once Herro returns, that airspace tightens.
Stuff like Al Horford’s rest or Mark Williams only playing 24 minutes? That’s maintenance. That’s part of the plan. Veteran players pace themselves. It’s nothing to worry about unless injuries become recurring themes.
Be alert, not alarmed. Evaluate how serious the situation is before blowing a roster spot.
Sample Size Is a Trickster
Fantasy managers overreact to small samples because they want instant results. But early-season stats are like cloudy mirrors. You think you see truth, but you’re really seeing reflections of randomness and context.
It takes about three weeks before stats start making sense. That’s when shooting luck, rotations, and minutes stabilize. So, until then, just watch trends. Is the player getting consistent minutes? Are they part of the main rotation? Are they comfortable in new roles? That’s what matters, not one box score.
Remember Why You Drafted Them
If you believed in Cade Cunningham, Brandon Miller, or Jalen Johnson during the draft, trust that research. Don’t ditch them for the flavor of the week. Meanwhile, if a veteran you weren’t high on, say, D’Angelo Russell, goes off twice, let your league mates chase that false flag. Trust your prep work. Trust your gut.
Fantasy basketball is a grind because it rewards patience. It punishes panic. Every season, the managers who stay calm through the early noise end up in the playoffs while the knee-jerk crowd wastes trades and drops difference-makers for one-week wonders.
Final Word
Take a deep breath, managers. It’s week one. We’re just getting started. Drastic lineup changes right now make you look like that person who tries to fix a cake halfway through baking. Give it time.
Joel Embiid will not average four points. Wemby will not average forty. The rookies will find their rhythm. The vets will pace themselves. Early season numbers are just the rehearsal.
Stay alert. Stay patient. Don’t chase chaos. Keep believing in your draft plan.
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Robbin Marx
NBA Fantasy Analyst
Experience: NBC Sports - Rotoworld, HashTag Basketball, Bleav Network