December Risers and Fallers for 9-Cat Leagues
Fantasy Basketball Strategy from StatCats!
We’re over two months deep, and the early-season dust has begun to settle. This is StatCats 9-category fantasy risers and fallers guide for December and our recommended strategies for what moves you can make with these players.
All player notes and names below are based on 9-cat rankings and trends over roughly the last 30 days on BasketballMonster.com, plus publicly available box scores.
Quick Tags (Used Throughout)
At the top of player blurbs you’ll see:
Player Trend: Riser – True Breakout, Faller – Build-Dependent, etc.
Confidence (1–5): How likely the December performance is to hold rest-of-season.
Most competitive rosters end up gravitating towards two macro builds:
Guard Build – Teams built around high-usage ball-handlers who drive Points, Assists, Threes, FT% (and usually punt turnovers).
Big-Man Build – Teams built around interior anchors who dominate Rebounds, Blocks, FG% (and usually punt FT%).
Framing December risers and fallers through these lenses makes the analysis more actionable: instead of just asking “is this guy good?”, we’re asking “what kind of team does this version of him push you toward, and should you lean into or away from that build?”
How to Use This Guide
Identify your build
Find your draft range (early, mid, late).
Use the blurbs to decide whether to lean into your build, pivot, or re-balance via trade/waivers.
High-Level Category Map
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Category Build: Guard Build
Risers of the Month
1) Jamal Murray (DEN - PG)
Tags: Riser - Efficiency Spike, Confidence (4/5)
Murray has been a flamethrower in December, averaging 26.9 points, 7.5 assists, and 4.3 rebounds. Most impressively, he is shooting 50.9% from deep and 48.8% from the field.
Why he’s a build shifter: Murray is currently providing the holy grail for Guard Builds: high-volume scoring and assists without the usual field goal percentage punt. His 50%+ three-point shooting on nearly 8 attempts per game has also been impressive.
Sustainable or Mirage: Sustainable volume, Mirage efficiency. While Murray is an elite shooter, sustaining 50.9% from three-point range is historically unlikely. Expect the scoring to remain high (especially with Jokic out), but the efficiency should regress to his career mean.
Action: Hold. You are getting first-round value right now. Unless you can swap him for a top-10 asset, ride the hot hand.
2) Kevin Porter Jr. (MIL - PG/SG)
Tags: Riser - Stocks & Dimes, Confidence (2/5)
KPJ has been a statistical monster in December, stuffing the stat sheet with 20.0 points, 8.3 assists, and a massive 2.7 steals per game. He is also contributing 5.8 rebounds, playing a complete all-around game.
Why he’s a build shifter: KPJ’s steals and assists have been outstanding. For a mid-round pick, getting nearly 3 steals and 8+ assists per game is league-winning value that solidifies a Guard Build’s defensive stats.
Sustainable or Mirage: Mirage (to an extent). The 2.7 steals per game is a high bar to maintain; however, his role in the offense seems secure. Expect the defensive stats to cool off, but the usage looks real.
Action: Sell High. If someone believes he is a top-25 player rest-of-season, move him. His volatility is well-documented, and this is likely the peak of his value.
3) Collin Gillespie (PHX - PG)
Tags: Riser - Waiver Wire Gem, Confidence (3/5)
Gillespie has emerged as a reliable contributor in December, putting up 16.2 points, 5.5 assists, and 1.7 steals while shooting 93.8% from the free-throw line and 43.8% from three.
Why he’s a build shifter: He is providing “glue guy” stats for Guard Builds—excellent free throw impact and three-point volume without hurting you anywhere.
Sustainable or Mirage: Rotation-Dependent. His production feels tied to the Suns’ available rotation minutes. If the backcourt gets fully healthy, his volume may dip, but his efficiency (FT% and 3P%) appears to be a legitimate skill set.
Action: Hold. He is a great asset for Guard Builds needing efficiency stabilization. Don’t be afraid to drop if his minutes vanish, but ride the wave for now.
Fallers of the Month
1) Devin Booker (PHX - PG/SG)
Tags: Faller - Shooting Slump, Confidence (2/5)
Booker has had a rough December by his standards. While the counting stats are decent (24.3 PPG), his efficiency has plummeted, specifically his three-point shooting, which sat at a dismal 25.0% for the month.
Why he’s a build shifter: Managers drafted Booker to anchor percentages and scoring. In December, he became a drag on 3P% and his 5.3 assists are also slightly lower than what managers want from their primary guard slot.
Sustainable or Mirage: Mirage. Booker is one of the best pure shooters in the league. A 25% month from deep is an anomaly. The volume is there (17.6 shots per game), and he should improve.
Action: Buy Low. This is the classic buy-low window. The scoring volume is still elite; once the shot starts falling, he returns to top-15 status.
2) Coby White (CHI - PG/SG)
Tags: Faller - Volume Dip, Confidence (4/5)
White struggled to find his rhythm in December, averaging just 16.9 points and 4.0 assists. His shooting woes were evident, hitting only 31.3% of his threes and shooting 44.4% from the field.
Why he’s a build shifter: White is a volume-dependent fantasy asset. When he isn’t scoring in the 20s, his lack of defensive stats (0.6 steals in December) makes him a hollow roster spot. He is currently hurting Guard Builds in FG% without providing the elite threes/points to justify it.
Sustainable or Mirage: Sustainable. With the Bulls’ rotation shifting, White’s usage fluctuates more than owners would like. He needs high volume to be effective, and currently, he isn’t getting the consistent touches to be a primary option.
Action: Hold. You likely can’t trade him for value right now. Hold him until he strings together a few high-scoring games, then look to trade if you can.
3) Devin Vassell (SA - SG)
Tags: Faller - Efficiency Crater, Confidence (2/5)
Vassell has had a month to forget, averaging 13.7 points on a painful 38.9% shooting from the field. While his free throw percentage remains elite (87.5%), the lack of counting stats (2.4 assists) exacerbates the poor shooting.
Why he’s a build shifter: A sub-40% field goal percentage on nearly 12 shots a game is a category killer. For a Guard Build that usually struggles with FG%, Vassell is digging the hole deeper without providing the defensive stats or playmaking to make up for it.
Sustainable or Mirage: Mirage. Vassell is a talented scorer and a better shooter than this month suggests. The Spurs’ offense can be inconsistent, but Vassell is too good to shoot 38% long-term.
Action: Buy Low. If an owner is willing to sell low, take advantage of it. When his shot returns, he provides top-75 value.
Category Build: Big-Man Build
Risers of the Month
1) Jalen Johnson (ATL - PF)
Tags: Riser - 9-Cat Superstar, Confidence (4/5)
Johnson has established himself as a first-round talent, averaging elite multi-category production in December: 24.8 points, 10.9 rebounds, 10.4 assists, and 1.3 steals, with phenomenal shooting splits. Ranked 5th over the past month!
Why he’s a build shifter: Johnson is generally viewed as a third-round pick in punt-FT% builds, but he has shot 86% from the charity stripe over the past month. Even if we expect some regression, he should still produce at an elite level. His PRA stats are among the best in the game, and his only real “weakness” is his turnovers.
Sustainable or Mirage: Sustainable/Slight Dropoff. Johnson has become a primary creator in the offense and has sustained production even with Trae Young back from injury. His minutes and usage are secure, and his shooting improvements appear legitimate due to improved shot selection and confidence. The only drop-off could come from his assists, but those also look relatively solidified.
Action: Buy/Hold. Do not entertain trade offers. This is the new baseline for his production, and he is a foundational piece for any championship run. Look to Buy High on him.
2) Onyeka Okongwu (ATL - C)
Tags: Riser - Breakout Year, Confidence (5/5)
Okongwu has produced second-round value in December, averaging 17.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and 1.0 blocks on 48% shooting from the floor.
Why he’s a build shifter: We saw glimpses of Okongwu’s potential last season, but his biggest hurdle was playing time. This year, he’s been a monster for the Hawks and has solidified his starting role. He has no real weaknesses on the floor.
Sustainable or Mirage: Sustainable. Okongwu looks poised to maintain this production for the rest of the season, and he’s doing it with better efficiency than ever. Before this season, his best FG% was 55%; he’s now at 48% and still returning top-tier value, which shows he can produce even more efficiently in the right context.
Action: Buy Low/High. Okongwu might not get the recognition he deserves, and fantasy managers may undervalue his contributions. We think he’s a buy in any situation, as he fits both guard and big-man builds thanks to his multi-cat contributions.
3) Kel’el Ware (MIA - C)
Tags: Riser - Inconsistent Big, Confidence (2/5)
Ware has delivered second-round value over the past month, averaging 12.7 points, 10.8 rebounds, 1.3 blocks, and 1.0 steals on 59% shooting from the field.
Why he’s a build shifter: Ware has become an all-around contributor who can deliver a double-double on any given night. At center, he provides strong steals and blocks for the position, averaging 1.3 threes per game this season while also shooting 83% from the free-throw line.
Sustainable or Mirage: Mirage. In his sophomore season, Ware’s overall efficiency has jumped from 55/32/69 shooting splits to 55/45/82. He’s also been an inconsistent performer, often scoring fewer than 5 points in a game.
Action: Sell High. Look to include Ware in a package deal if possible. His per-minute stats are excellent; however, we don’t see his efficiency staying this high.
Fallers of the Month
1) Paolo Banchero (ORL - SF/PF)
Tags: Faller - Disappointing, Confidence (3/5)
Banchero is averaging 19.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 1.2 stocks on 44% shooting over the last 30 days. He is returning 18th-round value.
Why he’s a build shifter: Banchero is coming off a strong season last year and entered this season as a third-round pick. He has been far from a great performer and has struggled across the board. His stocks have been poor, and his efficiency has been just as bad. This is what you expect from Banchero, but combining it with mediocre PRA tanks his value.
Sustainable or Mirage: Mirage. We think his production will increase and, realistically, land him around seventh-round value by season’s end. That would still be an underwhelming season compared to preseason expectations.
Action: Buy Low. Banchero has picked up his scoring over the last few games, and we expect him to follow with stronger performances. His value may be on the upswing, but he’s still a solid buy-low target if possible.
2) Myles Turner (MIL - C)
Tags: Faller - Efficiency Slippage, Confidence (3/5)
Turner has struggled in December, ranking as the 163rd-best player while averaging 12.2 points, 2.1 threes, and 1.5 blocks on 38% shooting from the field.
Why he’s a build shifter: Turner has struggled with his efficiency all season, and it has continued in December. His value is largely driven by threes and blocks, but that edge gets muted by his multi-cat shortcomings (low rebounds/assists and poor FG%).
Sustainable or Mirage: Mirage / partly sustainable. Turner should tick up in efficiency, but at this point he looks more like a late-round player than the top-50 ADP bet. His value should remain anchored to threes and blocks.
Action: Buy Low. His value is at an all-time low right now, so you may be able to snag him from a desperate manager who has given up. Don’t expect a major turnaround, but he should bounce back slightly as the season goes on.
3) De’Andre Ayton (LAL - C)
Tags: Faller - Usage Drop, Confidence (4/5)
Ayton struggled in December, averaging just 10.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 1.1 steals on 68% shooting from the field and an abysmal 29% from the free-throw line. 11th-round value.
Why he’s a build shifter: In his first season with the Lakers, Ayton has become an ultra-efficient scorer who flirts with a double-double most nights. He’s a strong complementary piece for any Big-Man Build.
Sustainable or Mirage: Mirage. Ayton is enduring the worst free-throw shooting stretch of his career, and it’s hard to believe this becomes the norm. His overall numbers have also dipped slightly.
Action: Buy Low. As mentioned before, we still like Ayton as a rotational piece in a Big-Man Build given his double-double tendencies, high steals for a center, and strong FG%. Now is a good time to trade for him if his manager isn’t punting FT%.
Take advantage of this window to capitalize on these trends; buy the dip on underperformers and sell the peak on temporary breakouts
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Brilliant breakdown on the Murray situaton. The way you differentiate between sustainable volume versus mirage efficiency is somethin I've learned the hardway in my own leagues. Had him last year and watching him now with Jokic out, the usage is locked in but yeah that 50% from deep wont last. Sold someone on this exact logic last week and it worked beautifully.