Breaking Down the Fantasy Basketball Mock Draft Madness:

2025-26 ADP Trends That'll Make You Rich or Leave You Crying

Sep 03, 2025

Don't let that be you. Don't be the manager scrolling through the waiver wire in November wondering why your "sure thing" first rounder is putting up numbers that would embarrass a benchwarmer. The 2025-26 mock draft season is heating up, and the ADP data from the last two weeks is telling stories that could make or break your championship dreams.

I've been deep in the trenches, analyzing expert mocks, studying platform differences, and tracking the pulse of where fantasy basketball's sharpest minds are placing their bets. What I'm seeing isn't just interesting. It's revolutionary. The consensus is cracking, sleepers are emerging from the shadows, and some "locks" are sliding faster than a Shaq free throw attempt.

Let me break down what's really happening in these mock drafts, because if you're still operating on July rankings, you're already behind.

Standard Practice: The Boring Stuff That Still Matters

The top of the draft remains boringly predictable, and honestly, that's fine by me. Nikola Jokic continues to own the number one spot across every platform and format. According to Alex Barutha's recent analysis, Jokic "remains the undisputed top player in fantasy basketball, consistently delivering big-time triple-doubles." The man fills every category and plays 75-plus games. Revolutionary? No. Reliable? Absolutely.

Victor Wembanyama sits comfortably at number two in most expert mocks, though Josh Lloyd mentioned in his recent breakdown that "Wembanyama offers upside to be the No. 1 player in fantasy" while acknowledging the blood clot concerns from last season. That medical situation isn't scaring off the sharps, though. They're betting on the Spurs' medical staff and Wemby's generational upside.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander rounds out the consensus top three. Dan Titus noted that SGA "provides top-tier assists and delivers consistent value" with minimal injury concerns. The Thunder winning the title last season only solidified his position as a rock-solid foundation pick.

What's fascinating is how locked in this top tier has become. In 14 expert mocks I've analyzed over the past two weeks, these three players went 1-2-3 in 11 of them. The variance comes after pick five, and brother, that's where it gets spicy.

The Outliers: Where Experts Are Getting Freaky

Here's where the mock draft streets are getting wild. Domantas Sabonis going seventh overall in ESPN ADP? That's not a typo, and it's not an accident. As one industry expert put it during a recent mock, "It's based on points leagues. ESPN is so much leaning towards points leagues" that Sabonis becomes a legitimate first-round option.

But the real head-scratcher? Karl-Anthony Towns sliding to ninth in most category league mocks. The "Thibs effect" is officially over in New York, and experts are pricing in reduced minutes under new coach Mike Brown. One analyst mentioned taking Towns at nine feels "solid" but questioned whether he's still a true first-rounder given the changing landscape.

The biggest outlier move I've seen? Joel Embiid going 52nd overall in one expert mock. Fifth round. For a former MVP. Now, before you start typing angry comments, the manager who took him explained it perfectly: "If he hits, if Joel Embiid hits at the fifth round, you will likely have first-round value for a fifth-round price." That's the definition of calculated risk, and in a season where durability questions are louder than ever, it's not crazy.

Sleepers Rising: The Names You Need to Know

The sleeper movement is real, and it's happening fast. Cooper Flagg's ADP has stabilized around pick 30-36 across platforms, but here's the kicker. In category leagues, he's going even earlier. One expert mentioned Flagg "has the height, strength and instincts to play down low as a shot blocker, but he also has the quickness and athleticism to lock down on the perimeter."

Matas Buzelis is climbing draft boards like he's got rockets attached to his feet. Alex Barutha called him "the easiest way to return on investment" given Chicago's frontcourt situation. The Bulls forward is trending toward mid-round territory, and honestly, I'm down for it!

The late-round sleeper with tons of buzz? Jay Huff in Indiana. After Myles Turner wasn't retained, Huff could step into a fantasy-friendly role. As one analyst put it, "he boasts impressive jumping ability, a 40% shooting rate from beyond the arc, and an average of 2.7 blocks per 36 minutes."

Trends That Are Reshaping Draft Boards

The biggest trend I'm seeing? The great youth movement. Experts are gravitating toward players 25 and under, even if it means passing on proven veterans. Cade Cunningham's rise to seventh overall reflects this philosophy. After finishing in the top 30 last season, Dan Titus noted that "before the 2024-2025 season, Cunningham hadn't finished higher than 82nd in 9-cat leagues."

Platform differences are more pronounced than ever. ESPN's points league focus is creating massive ADP gaps compared to Yahoo's more balanced approach. Josh Lloyd pointed out that "platform differences are wider than usual this preseason," creating clear arbitrage opportunities for savvy managers.

The injury-prone veteran discount is steeper than a San Francisco street. Players like Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Anthony Davis are falling further than their per-game production suggests they should. One expert mentioned that "health has been a recurring concern" for these players, but "when they play, they deliver MVP-caliber production."

Red Flags and Fades

The biggest red flag trend? The complete abandonment of aging guards. Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook are basically undraftable in expert mocks. Even formerly reliable players like D'Angelo Russell are getting the cold shoulder.

The Knicks minutes crunch is real. With Tom Thibodeau gone, experts are skeptical about the playing time for Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson, and even Towns. The new coaching philosophy emphasizes rotation depth, which could cap the ceiling for New York's fantasy assets.

The Rookie Revolution

This rookie class is different. Beyond Flagg, we're seeing unprecedented early-round investment in first-year players. Dylan Harper from San Antonio is generating excitement. Ace Bailey in Utah could be a mid-round steal given the Jazz's recent roster moves.

But here's the twist. The rookie love is creating value in the veteran market. While everyone's chasing shiny new toys, proven commodities are sliding to discounted prices. Smart managers are taking advantage of this inefficiency.

Platform-Specific Strategies

ESPN drafters need to adjust for the points league bias. Players like Jordan Poole and Jalen Green become more valuable in ESPN's scoring system. Yahoo managers should target defensive specialists who get undervalued in points formats but crush in categories.

Fantrax users are getting the most balanced ADP data, but that platform's customization options mean league-specific adjustments are crucial. Sleeper's Lock-In Mode is creating entirely different draft strategies, with weekly variance becoming less important than ceiling games.

The Bottom Line

The 2025-26 mock draft landscape is more fragmented than ever, and that's creating opportunities for managers who know where to look. The consensus is breaking down, sleepers are emerging, and platform differences are creating arbitrage opportunities.

The sharpest minds in fantasy basketball are zigging while others zag. They're taking calculated risks on injury-prone stars at discounted prices. They're investing in rookie upside while others chase last year's stats. They're identifying platform-specific inefficiencies and exploiting them mercilessly.

Don't be the manager who shows up to draft night with outdated information and stale takes. The ADP trends are shifting daily, the sleepers are rising, and the edges are there for managers smart enough to find them.

Study the data. Trust the process. Because in a season where the margin for error gets smaller every year, the difference between championship glory and waiver wire regret often comes down to who did their homework.

The mock draft season is just getting started, but the trends are clear. The question isn't whether you'll adapt to the changing landscape. The question is whether you'll adapt fast enough to stay ahead of the competition.

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